This was supposed to be an easy Derby year with War Pass taking no prisoners on his way to the Triple Crown.Things did not work out that way.Then came Big Brown who has done nothing wrong in three lifetime starts winning all three by a combined 28 lengths.Things changed for him Wednesday when he drew post 20 for today’s Run for the Roses.Big Brown is still talented enough to win from the far outside but given the big field and the fact he has only run three times, it makes sense to go looking elsewhere for the winner.With a solid draw for Big Brown it was expected that he could control the pace of the race from the beginning and simply win the race from the front end. With the outside draw something has to give. He either changes tactics and takes back looking to save ground or guns it from the outside looking to make the lead.For our purposes we are certainly hoping he looks to make the lead from the outside and is forced to use some horse early on and sets up things for a late runner.Z Fortune really has done nothing wrong in his career compiling three wins and a pair of second-place finishes in six lifetime starts for trainer Steve Asmussen.This New York bred son of Siphon broke his maiden at first asking at Belmont defeating nine rivals while earning a 93 Beyer Speed figure.Being put on the shelf for a bit after that maiden win, Z Fortune’s 2008 campaign actually began in December with an easy win over Aqueduct’s inner track in an entry-level allowance race for state breds.He went on to Louisiana to with the Grade II LeComte. He finished second to Pyro in the Risen Star, threw in a clunker in the Rebel but rebounded nicely to run second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby earning and 102 speed figure while racing four wide around both turns.Z Fortune’s ability to rate and make a late run could be the key this afternoon with Big Brown and a host of other looking to gain the front early.
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