Collins: Looking to history to find value in second leg of Triple Crown

Big Brown’s performance in the Kentucky Derby has certainly made life easy for most of the public handicappers who are simply looking to release a winner ? blindly pick Big Brown and chalk up a win ? but for people who like to find value, Saturday’s race is complicated.Conventional wisdom tells you that Big Brown should have little trouble dispatching his 12 rivals in the Preakness, but what fun is that if you are trying to make money at 6:15 p.m. Saturday?So, with all that said we will try to make a case for one other horse in the Preakness and hope the quick turnaround for Big Brown is a big obstacle.History has shown to win the Preakness you must have run in the Derby. Since 1990 only two horses (Bernardini in 2006 and Red Bullet in 2000) have skipped the Derby and gone on to win the Preakness. Bernardini’s win in 2006 came when Barbaro broke down coming out of the gate and in 2000 the connections of Red Bullet opted to skip the Derby and focus their attention on the Preakness.Taking history into consideration, the only horse you can look at Saturday would be Gayego, the only horse other than Big Brown to run in the Derby.The Kentucky Derby chart for Gayego is about as ugly as it gets, as the 3-year-old son of Gilded Time had a sluggish start and was rank while finishing 17th, beaten by more than 36 lengths.Gayego’s jockey, Mike Smith, has been quoted this week as saying, “He didn’t break and then he ducked in from the crowd.” Smith said, “I was never in it ? never in the race.”Now, it is hard to get excited about a horse that finished 17th in his last start, but again, looking at history, maybe this is not such a bad thing for Gayego.In 1996, trainer Nick Zito brought Louis Quatorze to Old Hilltop after the son of Sovereign Dancer finished 16th in the Derby and his comment line said bumped, dull effort. In 1991, Hansel rebounded from a 10th-place finish in the Derby to win the Preakness. His running line in the Derby said he failed to be a serious threat.So if you are looking to take a stab on Gayego Saturday, there are a couple of historical factors in your favor. The fact he has been listed at 8-1 on the morning line also helps a bit as well. Louis Quatorze went off at 8-1 when he won the Preakness, and Hansel was sent away at 9-1 when he redeemed himself from a poor Derby run.If you are convinced Big Brown will run away and hide from the 12 others in the field, the other option is to key Big Brown on top of some trifectas and supers.In addition to Gayego, you should consider using Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Hey Byrn and Icabad Crane.Kentucky Bear finished third in the Blue Grass after being bumped at the start and forced nine wide. Riley Tucker is a model of consistency, finishing in the money in six of seven lifetime starts. Hey Byrn was within shouting distance of Big Brown, well, kind of, when he finished fourth in the Florida Derby, beaten by 15 lengths.Sometimes having a run over the Pimlico track can help in the Preakness, and the only horse to face the starter in Baltimore is Icabad Crane. He won the Fedrico Tesio at Pimlico in his last start for trainer Graham Motion and jockey Jeremy Rose.While we always search for value, after watching the powerful run by Big Brown in Louisville two weeks ago, you have to wonder if the Triple Crown drought will end this year.