At least when you try to predict outcomes in sports, the entire weight of the Western world doesn’t rest on your shoulders.The stock market doesn’t crash if you pick the Angels instead of the Red Sox; the airplane doesn’t veer off into the side of a mountain if calculate your odds wrong; and the bridge doesn’t collapse in the middle of rush hour if you fail to factor something into your prognosis.Good thing, too. Otherwise, I’d be in jail by now. I’ve been absolutely horrible this year, with the exception of the Celtics’ final. Picked the Patriots to win ? they lost. Said in July the Red Sox wouldn’t make the playoffs; they did ? said two weeks ago the Sox didn’t have enough clutch, or patient, hitters to be anything more than automatic outs when things got tense.Well, I was right about that last part. I still don’t think the Red Sox have a good enough lineup that you can’t pitch around the one or two hot hitters so you can deal with a more favorable matchup.I just didn’t count on the Angels playing stupid when the chips were down. We’re not too used to seeing that around here. Say what you want about the Red Sox (and I do), but they generally do not play stupid.To wit: Why a squeeze play Monday with one out in the top of the ninth, a runner on third, and the guy who got the game-winning hit the night before at bat? Get your bat on the ball almost anywhere – save for a popup – and you’re looking at a run without the possibility of something disastrous happening.To me, that’s playing stupid. There’s a reason that play’s called a “suicide” squeeze. Why take the chance? And when it didn’t work, didn’t you just know the Red Sox would win it in the bottom of the inning?Mike Scioscia has a reputation for being a great manager, but there’s such a thing as outcoaching yourself, and I’m afraid that’s exactly what he did in this case.We’ve seen enough of the Tampa Bay Rays to know that Joe Maddon – a Scioscia disciple – won’t be doing anything like that. He won’t be giving away outs unnecessarily. And the Rays don’t play stupid. They play tough.What else can you think? The Rays looked ready to fade into the sunset in September, reeling while the Red Sox were rocking, as they began a six-game home-and-home stretch.When it was over, the Rays took four out of six, won in every conceivable manner imaginable (including coming from behind to beat closer Jonathan Papelbon), and shook off the neophyte tag in stunning fashion.This American League Championship Series could be one for the books.The Red Sox are so past their 86-year history of being October-challenged that people actually think of them today as we once thought of the Yankees – impregnable in the postseason.However, the Rays looked the Red Sox and Yankees in the eye all year and they didn’t flinch. Whatever aura the Boston-New York axis seems to have anywhere else (and can we just admit the Red Sox absolutely have the Angels spooked?), the Rays have shrugged, looked past it, and persevered. They not only deserve credit for this, they deserve the respect of every baseball fan with even a hint of knowledge and historical perspective.It’s tough to predict a winner, but I honestly think the Red Sox can do this. Will they? It depends. They have to win one down in St. Pete this weekend, or else. A two-game sweep this weekend, and you can forget about another American League pennant.That’s a lot easier said than done. In nine games down there this season, the Sox won only once – in September when they lit up Scott Kazmir.It should be noted, though, that Daisuke Matsuzaka, tonight’s pitcher, has the only win down there, and both times Josh Beckett pitched at The Trop, the games were close and low-scoring.To top it all off, Jon Lester never took the mound this season at The Trop (an amazing thing in and of itself when you consider how important he became as the season wore on) – and actually only faced the Rays twice all season – both wins at Fenway (one of them a combined shutout with Papel