Krause: Predictions are tough, but it still looks like the Sox won’t make playoffs

Come the first of April, all the pundits come crawling out of hibernation with their Red Sox predictions. It’s one of those rites of spring, like the cherry blossoms along the Potomac and the return of the Swan Boats on the Boston Public Garden.The funniest part of the whole thing is that nobody really knows how the Red Sox are going to do. We all base our conjecture on what happened last year, or what we saw during spring training (either before or after we all solemnly agree that you can’t really judge a team from what it does in the Grapefruit League).In the end, all teams are one injury, one bad stretch, or one significant slump away from disappointment. Or they’re one unknown ace in the hole away from an improbable pennant. It depends not only on the hand they’re dealt, but what they get in the draw.If I were to judge the Red Sox today, I’d say no dice, and that I cannot understand how anyone could pick them to make the playoffs. I could list all the reasons why I think this way, but there isn’t enough space and you probably wouldn’t want to read them anyway. Spring is supposed to be a time for rebirth and optimism.Not only that, I haven’t exactly distinguished myself as the First or Last Word of Prognostication lately. Pittsburgh will not win the NCAA men’s basketball title, despite my firm prediction three weeks ago. Both in 2007 and last year I wrote – with the type of certainty that would lead one to comment “frequently in error, but never in doubt” – that the Red Sox would not make the playoffs. Both times, they did ? and in 2007, they won the whole thing.Last fall, I said that the Patriots would go to the Super Bowl with Tom Brady and be lucky to go .500 if he got hurt. As it turned out, I was wrong there, too. Brady did get hurt, but they won 11 games (but still didn’t make the playoffs).In defense of me, however, I did say, last June, that the Celtics would beat the Lakers in seven games. And while I wasn’t 100 percent correct there, I was close enough. They won in six.Predicting in April how something’s going to turn out in October is an imperfect business. For example, several outlets (including Sports Illustrated) are picking the New York Mets to win the National League pennant. The Mets? Are they talking about the same Mets who were on the fast track to make the playoffs in both ’07 and ’08 until they massively choked in September? Those Mets? Are these people gluttons for punishment? Why not just pick the Cubs?My initial impressions are that the Red Sox are too flawed offensively to keep up with the Yankees in the AL East. Their pitching should keep them in contention, but unless these veterans they’ve acquired exceed expectations, I just don’t think there’s enough of it to get them over the top.Think about it. Beyond Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett you have a staff full of question marks. Will Tim Wakefield finally realize he’s Dorian Gray in a baseball uniform? Will Brad Penny’s arm fall off someday when he releases the baseball? Will John Smoltz’s shoulder stay in place?How many 96 mph fastballs on the black can Jonathan Papelbon’s arm give him this year? Something tells me he’s been incredibly fortunate these last two years and – same as Brady – the law of averages could catch up with him this summer.We all know the offense has holes in it, but it’s the pitching that worries me. And that’s because they need all of it to come together or it’s going to be a long summer.So, as that great 20th-century philosopher Moses Horwitz once said to his brother Jerome, “We shall see what we shall see.” But as of today, I’m thinking that while they’ll certainly contend, the Red Sox might not have enough to pull it all together this year.Steve Krause is sports editor of The Item.