Raise a glass and say slainte to Dublin

The complexion of Kentucky Derby 136 twice has changed dramatically since last weekend.First, expected heavy Derby favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn after suffering a leg injury, then the two morning-line favorites; Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy drew horribly in Wednesday’s post-position draw.Lookin at Lucky’s trainer, Bob Baffert, said Wednesday after his charge drew the rail, “He’s got to break well. Plan A is to break well. Plan B is we’re screwed.”Sidney’s Candy ended up on the other extreme, drawing post 20. While recent history shows Big Brown winning from the far outside just two years ago, there is no doubt he was much the best in that Derby field. The only other horse to win from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, and according to the Daily Racing Form, that was from a walkup start.With Sidney’s Candy, Line of David, American Lion and Conveyance, all being horses who want to be on the front end Saturday, the pace of the Derby should be percolating so look for the winner to be coming from the back of the pack.I am not thrilled with the way Dublin has hung on his run through the stretch in his three preps this year at Oaklawn but believe his running style is perfectly suited to picking up the pieces if the race collapses in the stretch as I believe it will.The D. Wayne Lukas (four-time Derby winning trainer) trainee comes into the race with a career-best 97 Beyer he earned when finishing third in the Arkansas Derby behind Line of David and Super Saver.In that race jockey Terry Thompson put the son of Afleet Alex in a three-wide long drive and he stalled in the final stages of the race. Have to believe Lukas will tell Thompson to be a bit more patient Saturday and start his run a little later, which should make his late kick more potent.Jockey Julien Leparoux has been all smiles this week at Churchill Downs because of the works his mount, Awesome Act, has put together.The son of Awesome Again worked four furlongs Tuesday on a muddy Churchill strip in :48.1 while not being asked for speed. It was the second-fastest work of the day at the distance of 24 works.Awesome Again has had just two prep races in 2010, which is a concern, but his win in the Gotham at Aqueduct is the race that gets me excited about his chances.He broke seventh in a field of 10, slowly worked his way through traffic and the field around the far turn before charging through the lane for the win.His third-place run in the Wood Memorial could be better than it looks on paper when you factor in the slow pace (:49.1 half and 1:13.2 for three quarters). He also stumbled slightly at the break and was wide throughout.Trainer Nick Zito knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby (Go For Gin, 1994 and Strike the Gold, 1991), and this year he brings in Ice Box who has not raced since winning the Florida Derby March 20. Ice Box is the only horse who has had three preps going 1 1/8 miles, which could prove to be a factor as all of the horses attempt 1 1/4 miles for the first time.The son of Pulpit, out of a Tabasco Cat mare, won an allowance race at Gulfstream to start 2010, was fifth in the Fountain of Youth before winning the Florida Derby.His half-mile works have been very solid at Churchill and his late run could be powerful coming through the lane.Lookin at Lucky is by far the most talented colt remaining in the field posting six wins from eight lifetime starts, but he is one of the most unlucky horses despite his success and name.Last year he drew the far outside in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and lost by a head after putting on a devastating close.He found trouble in both his preps this season after adding blinkers. He won the Rebel at Oaklawn despite jumping heels at the half-mile pole and ran third behind Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby after being steadied hard at the 5/16 pole.Baffert will remove the shades for the Derby, a move which has produced winners for the trainer at a 29 percent clip, and if jockey Garrett Gomez can work