Will the Patriots defeat the Houston Texans Sunday? Nay

A dangerous cloud of overconfidence is rising over Foxborough.It is mingling with the aroma of Dunkin’ Donuts coffee, but unlike a good “cuppa,” it won’t wake up the New England Patriots. That is why they’ll get a doughnut hole for the playoffs this year.Look, I respect what Bill Belichick has done with this team. A division championship in an injury-ravaged season. Yet the wheel of Fortune, so good to the Patriots in the regular season (including a 42-14 win over Houston), will hurt them in the playoffs.As Belichick says, “It is what it is.” (Tennyson’s “That which we are, we are” is so much more lyrical.) That shutout of Miami notwithstanding, the Patriots are basically what they were when the season began, when everyone slammed their defense. I don’t like statistics much – Mark Twain once said, “there are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies and statistics” – but consider this. The 2012 Pats allowed an average of 271.4 passing yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. If Matt Schaub can solve this defense, the Pats are in trouble.Or maybe the Texans will attack with Arian Foster, who became the first running back in NFL history to accumulate 100 yards in each of his first three playoff games. True, the Patriots have Vince Wilfork, but even Vince couldn’t stop Ray Rice from running rampant in the playoffs three years ago.Yes, that was then and this is now, and back then, the Pats didn’t have Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez ? and they missed Wes Welker, who was injured. However, Gronk is only one game back after missing the last five with a broken forearm. Without our forearms, we probably couldn’t hold a fork, drive a car or catch a football. I hope Gronk is fully recovered ? but logic suggests otherwise.Lastly, this is the ultimate “trap” game. Everyone in Massachusetts and Colorado wants to see Pats-Broncos, Brady vs. Manning. It’s just that this disrespects the other teams involved, the Texans and Ravens. And it’s the sort of motivation that helps teams score upsets.On the menu Sunday: Coffee with cream and sugar. A plain cruller. And one upset special.Rich Tenorio can be reached at [email protected].