Krause: Florida should be last team standing in NCAAs this year

I will ask the first – obvious – question right away. What was the NCAA selection committee thinking?It has gone on record as saying it paid no attention to recent trends when it seeded this tournament … that total body of work counted more than who got hot when.That?s idiotic.Because of this wrong-headed thinking, we will now be deprived of what should be the NCAA championship game in three weeks: Michigan State vs. Florida.No. They couldn?t even put the Gators and Spartans on separate sides of this year?s brackets so the two teams could watch each other for the next two and a half weeks, knowing they?d be facing each other. They had to put them on the same side, so that the real national championship game will be one of the two semifinal games.Now that we know two of my Final Four picks, let?s backtrack.SOUTHFlorida basically has a waltz to the Final Four, befitting of a top overall seed. Nobody?s going to give the Gators much competition here. Maybe a month ago, I?d have said Syracuse, but the Orangemen have really sputtered coming down the stretch. I think they?ll regroup enough to make the regional final (beating Ohio State and upsetting Kansas along the way) but they won?t beat Florida.EASTMichigan State is one of a bunch of four seeds that?ll be making some noise, and I think two of them (Louisville being the other) make it to the Final Four. A couple of things about this East Regional, which is a tad tougher than the South (but not much). First, I see Virginia as a default No. 1 – born more out of reputation prejudice (Atlantic Coast Conference) than an accurate reflection of how the teams stack up. There?s been so much alignment and realignment that it?s tough to know how good some of these gerrymandered leagues are. At least the ACC is an old, established conference.While I think Louisville is legitimate, who knows how good the American Athletic Conference really is, in comparison to the old standbys. I do not always like Mike Krzyzewski, but on this we agree.So that, to me, is why Louisville comes in at a four while Virginia gets a one.Second, there will be no upset for Harvard. The Crimson will go out in Round 1 against Cincinnati. Then reality hits for the Bearcats and out they go, at the hands of Sparty.My other regional finalist is Iowa State, which has been impressive all season. I like Perry Ellis and I like the way the Cyclones handled Kansas (why do the Jayhawks get a No. 2 seed??). But nobody short of Florida has any prayer against a healthy Sparty, and even that?s not a given.WESTNow to the other (cannon fodder) side. I say that because whichever team comes out of that side will face either Florida or Michigan State, and will therefore lose.Arizona has the second-easiest path to the Final Four after Florida. I don?t see any real challenges for the Wildcats at least until they get into the regional final. Then … well, I say it?s Creighton, but that?s anything but firm.Doug McDermott has been a nice story (loved the Sports Illustrated cover), but Creighton is a perfect example of NCAA gerrymandering. Since when is Creighton (which is in Omaha, Neb.) anywhere close to the East, Big or otherwise? And I?m sorry, but an Elite Eight team should be able to fight its way out of today?s Big East even if it is in the Heartland.But outside of Wisconsin, the competition in that end of the bracket isn?t all that stiff. I think the Bluejays will survive it … and then get clobbered by ?Zona.MIDWESTThis brings us to the Midwest … the toughest bracket out of the four. Wichita State is the top seed, and while I?d never disrespect my friend and colleague Mike Shalin?s alma mater, I have to say that the Shockers won?t survive Louisville in the Sweet 16 … and that it won?t be a shock, either. That?s provided, of course, that WSU gets past Kentucky (no given by any stretch).(As an aside, for a change there?s a play-in game between NC State and Xavier – winner plays St. Louis – in this region that?s worthy of a good 8-9