Pawlicki: Democrats will maintain their hold on Congress
Predictions are always precarious. In politics, where late-emerging events can affect enough voters to change an election outcome, predictions are even riskier. Nevertheless, there are enough trends this far away from the 2022 midterm election to make some educated guesses.
Democrats may not be in as much peril as history and pundits argue.
History strongly predicts a Republican resurgence. On average, the out-of-power party makes substantial gains during non-presidential voting years. In 2010, just two years after Barack Obama soundly defeated John McCain, the Republican Party gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives and seven in the Senate, an outcome Obama accurately portrayed as a “shellacking.”
Unlike Democrats’ actions after Obama’s landmark Affordable Care Act legislation early in his administration, President Joe Biden has diametrically changed direction. Instead of cautiously promoting legislative successes like his predecessor, Biden has gone big and bold with legislative successes. Just as important, he has also gone long term.
While Republicans will undoubtedly do their best to repackage the perception of these payments, checks in the mail at election time will be a tangible argument difficult to excuse. Even a small sliver of Republicans modifying their vote in 2022 could be decisive.
Trump’s martyrdom persona continues to play well to his supporters, along with the view that minorities receive catered treatment. In deeply red states, the arguments favoring Democratic votes will gain little purchase.
There is a long list of things that can change before the 2022 election: Congressional retirements, legislative failures, judicial bombshells, international crises and domestic turmoil are just a few of the potential surprises that could occur. Given the COVID pandemic, it is clear that unexpected events can endanger any prediction.
Ray: Beware of a Republican resurgence
Reading the political tea leaves 18 months in advance is as tricky as making a weather forecast for the same timeframe. But every so often, circumstances combine to increase the odds in the forecaster’s favor. Looking ahead to next year’s midterms is one of them. Because if things continue on their current course, Nov. 8, 2022 will be a very good night for Republicans around the country.
For starters, history is on the GOP’s side going into the campaign. There’s a long track record of the incumbent president’s party losing seats during a midterm election. In fact, since 1934 only two presidents have enjoyed an increase in their party’s numbers in the House and Senate — Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 and George W. Bush in 2002.
But Republicans’ biggest advantage in 2022 might come from redistricting. Topline 2020 census numbers show both New York (Biden won by 23.2 percent) and California (Biden by 29.2 percent) losing seats in 2022 while Texas (won by Trump by 5.6 percent), Montana (Trump by 16.4 percent), North Carolina (Trump by 1.6 percent) and Florida (Trump by 3.3) will all gain seats.
As political commentator Hugh Hewitt pointed out in a recent Washington Post op-ed, the “GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats.”
Finally, don’t forget about Donald Trump. He turns out the base like no one else can, whether he’s on the ballot or not. The same can’t be said for Joe Biden. The 2022 election is shaping up for one big collective “You’re Fired!” to Democrats across America.
Robert Pawlicki is a retired psychologist and a frequent contributor to the Savannah (Ga.) Morning News. RJ May III serves in the South Carolina House of Representatives and is president of Ivory Tusk Consulting.
