MARBLEHEAD — The town’s Council on Aging held a forum Wednesday to discuss the economic crisis, and the ways in which residents can counteract the effects of inflation and rising costs across the board with a potential recession looming on the horizon.
At the luncheon, Jim Nye, selectman and president of National Grand Bank, Dan Brothers, chairman of the Marblehead Chamber of Commerce and financial advisor, and Dr. Ken Ardon, professor of Economics at Salem State University, broke down the economic situation and fielded questions from those in attendance.
The panelists sought to provide answers to the questions that so many Americans have about inflation, a potential recession, and the supply chain. As Michael Thompson, one of the organizers put it, “It’s an uncomfortable time to be on a fixed income.”
Ardon started off the panel explaining how the economy got to this point. He explained that both the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have caused a “mismatch in supply and demand.” He gave examples like the decreased demand for services during the pandemic versus the 30 percent increase in demand for durable goods.
He continued by saying that this shift in demand caused “spillover effects” in other industries. While the demand for many services is back to where it was before the pandemic, it has not rebounded to the level economists would have expected if not for the pandemic.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a second blow to the economy because of the key exports out of eastern Europe — food and gas. The lack of oil and cereal crops coming out of the region has caused another mismatch between supply and demand.
Despite these challenges, Ardon is “mildly optimistic” that prices will stop rising soon, but he said his optimism doesn’t extend to the prospect of prices falling.
Brothers followed by giving three pieces of advice to those who are looking to plan for their financial future. The first is to reevaluate your household budget, and to plan large future purchases “in today’s dollars.”
The second piece of advice Brothers gave was to focus on creating and maintaining an emergency fund — he cited a goal of saving 12-18 months worth of expenses in cash or cash equivalents.
Brothers also suggested examining where one’s income comes from and rebalancing one’s investments. He recommended that people work with professionals to make sure investments work for them.
He also had an important message to the group about recessions. He said that while the term seems scary, especially when said by “talking heads with an agenda,” the actual definition is “two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product,” or GDP.
The previous quarter did have a negative GDP, and as this quarter comes to a close, we will know soon if the U.S. will go into a recession. To assuage fears, Brothers reminded attendees that “just because we go into a recession doesn’t mean the world ends.”
Nye concluded the panel by speaking about how the economic situation is affecting Marblehead. He stated that mortgage interest rates have doubled and certificate of deposit rates, or CD rates, are expected to go up in quarter four.
He reassured residents that in spite of rising costs, much needed repaving, roofing, and other municipal projects are still being planned and worked on.
Questions from the seniors in attendance ranged from asking about different types of stocks, bonds, and even Bitcoin and NFTs. Other attendees asked about how municipal money was being used and how they should invest their money.
One resident, Ken MacAskill brought his petition to freeze assessment values for residents over 75 and pitched his idea to the group.
After the panel, emotions in the room were mixed. Emery Glass, of Marblehead, said that while he enjoyed the forum, he still has more doubt than hope. He said that looking back at history, he thinks the economy is heading for more turbulence.
“If we don’t follow history, will we repeat it?” Glass wondered.
Emma Fringuelli can be reached at [email protected].
