Robert Pawlicki
There are 28 million smokers in the United States. This, despite at least six decades of medical evidence supporting the ghastly damage from this habit.
About 15% of Americans failed to receive any COVID vaccinations, while more than one million died during our recent pandemic. The list can go on and on. Statistics and data don’t necessarily persuade people to change their behavior.
The most devoted of Donald Trump’s followers fit the same pattern. Facts and data are ineffective in influencing their beliefs and decisions.
When beliefs are deeply entrenched, facts become irrelevant. Changing deeply-held erroneous views of reality is a challenge that has been studied. One dramatic illustration is a small group in the 1950s who believed in the world’s imminent end. A specific date was forecast, and followers believed that aliens would rescue the devout.
Researcher Leon Festinger and colleagues took a particular interest in the members’ coping mechanisms after repeated predicted dates went by without destruction. Committed members continued to believe that the world would soon be destroyed. The date had just been incorrect.
They continued their false belief for some time with various alternative rationalizations, what Festinger labeled cognitive dissonance. Only after this small group lost a few members did the core disband.
Those who believe that Joe Biden is not our legitimate president are in denial. More than 60 state courts and a mountain of evidence certified that Biden won the 2020 election. There was no fraud. Yet, according to a CNN report, “69% of Republicans and those leaning Republican believe Biden is an illegitimate president.” More than half say there is “solid evidence” of fraud.
If Trump were to be convicted, his most devoted followers would not alter their views. Unlike the tiny group who believed the world would end, social media allows loyalists to reinforce one another in denial that Trump lost the 2020 election.
Two impeachment trials and the Jan. 6 committee had no effect. It’s unlikely that the current multiple indictments will be any different.
It’s not that facts are irrelevant. It’s just that emotions, biases, allegiances, and mental filters come into play. Anger, grievance, and resentment are particularly potent. Emotions have many contributors, but they — and support from like-minded peers — become the dominant decision-makers.
If you put yourself in the mindset of a strong Trump supporter, the world looks very different.
Trump bonded early on with the anti-establishment crowd and further solidified that relationship by “sticking it to the liberals,” using outlandish labels and emotional language regarding immigrants and minorities.
He proved his bona fides early by defeating Hillary Clinton, whom they considered a dark force for calling Trump supporters deplorable. For conservatives and those unhappy with “uppity” women, Clinton was a female Darth Vader dressed in pants.
Having a Black president for eight years, too, stirred negative emotions that Trump capitalized on.
Not all Republicans fit this picture, but most of his extreme followers do.
Republicans do not have a monopoly on bias. Every human filters the outside world, including Democrats and Republicans. Turning the channel between Fox and MSNBC changes from one reality to another.
There are, however, extreme biases when emotions deny unsaleable facts, be it from Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin, or even the Rev. Jim Jones, who induced 900 followers to drink poisoned Kool-Aid at his urging.
Anti-Trumpers are confounded by the loyalty from the Republican Party, primarily the highly devoted. They see endless blatant lies and crude behaviors. Trump’s followers, built on their emotional attachment, see these behaviors as tools to rile up their opponents and support their values.
If Trump is found guilty of the crimes claimed, he will, over time, have fewer followers. But, if history is any indication, facts will play little role for those whose emotions and devotions are intense.
Robert Pawlicki is a retired psychologist and author.
