No longer can we say the 2024 presidential election is in the obscure far-off future. The Iowa caucuses are exactly three months away — and the first real phase of the contest is taking shape.
What we know: Donald Trump has solidified his position atop the Republican field, doing so by the most astonishing feat: building strength from three searing indictments, profiting from his legal peril, and raising money from a mug shot that mere political mortals would consider mortifying. He and Joe Biden seem poised for a runoff.
But at this moment, the unknowns may be more intriguing:
— What is the long-term political implication of the Trump legal woes?
His opponents, accomplished in wishful thinking, believe that in the end, voters will not want a president who faces possible prison time for his crimes. Maybe they’re right. But are they the same people who thought Americans would not want an unlikeable, unqualified figure to be president? A month before the 2016 election, a Pew Research Center poll found that 70% of Americans thought Trump was reckless. Only a third thought he was qualified to be president. A few weeks later, thanks to the weakness of his opponent and the peculiarities of the Electoral College, he was president-elect of the United States.
— Is Trump unbeatable for the nomination?
He’s way, way ahead. But there are faint signs of weakness, apart from his legal jeopardy, the ultimate effects of which still are unclear. He lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 and faces a spirited challenge there from Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is closing in on his pledge to visit all 99 Iowa counties by the end of this month. The DeSantis commitment has prompted Trump to devote more time to Iowa. He knows a weak showing there sets him up for difficulties ahead.
— Is DeSantis the only threat to Trump?
No, not at all. The real threat may not be DeSantis but, instead, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina. The onetime United Nations ambassador in the Trump administration, she is doing in New Hampshire what DeSantis is doing in Iowa: going all-in (60 events since February, $10 million in Boston media market ads). And Haley has more to show for her efforts in New Hampshire than DeSantis does in Iowa.
She’s now moved into second place in the Granite State, which holds the first primary of the 2024 political season — a position confirmed not in a single poll but in two polls out on the same day. In both surveys, she has surged ahead of DeSantis. And though her best showing (19% in the Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USAToday poll) still puts her behind Trump (at 49%), she clearly has the momentum in that important state. Her hope: A surprise victory over Trump, or a very strong showing — say, within 10 percentage points of Trump — will transform the contest into a two-person race.
— What’s the X factor in the early part of the race?
It’s clearly the inclinations of the Republican governors of the first two states. Neither Kim Reynolds (Iowa) nor Chris Sununu (New Hampshire) wants Trump as the party nominee. Right now, the smart money is on Reynolds endorsing DeSantis and Sununu signing on with Haley.
— Is a gubernatorial endorsement worth much in a race like this?
These would not be meaningless expressions of support. Both governors have high popularity ratings and are respected broadly. They’re the two people on the face of the Earth who most worry the Trump team — Sununu especially.
He has made it clear that he wants to clear the field lined up against Trump. He’s determined to sweep away the multiple candidates with single digits, probably including uber-warrior former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, to transform the contest into a one-on-one match against Trump. Sununu will start urging candidates out of the race by the end of this month, accelerate the effort after Thanksgiving, turbocharge it in the eight days between Iowa and New Hampshire, and pillory those who remain after his state’s primary.
— Is abortion going to be a principal issue?
DeSantis, who has signed legislation outlawing abortion after six weeks in Florida, wants it to be; he knows the importance of the religious conservative vote, especially in his target state of Iowa, where some evangelical faith leaders find Trump repellent. Trump, who has signaled that he believes a hardline abortion stand is an electoral loser, also wants it to be. And Haley, who has used abortion as a way to burnish her profile as a reasonable, moderate alternative to the two leading men, wants it to be.
They can’t all be right. The conventional wisdom has been that Republican voters are more committed to protecting abortion rights than politicians think they are. But consider this: That Suffolk/Globe/USAToday poll showed that a majority of likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters said that abortion rights aren’t important to them. It will take a few weeks for the candidates to digest this, and to adjust their appeals.
— Is there a single, unrecognized factor that might help us understand the trajectory of the Republican nomination fight?
There might be. It requires some patience and some grade-four math. Here’s your assignment:
Have a look at the most recent NBC News Survey, and subtract the candidates’ negative ratings from their positive ratings. It will tell you something about the temper of the times (Americans have deeply negative feelings about their political leaders and institutions) and something about the people who are seeking the ultimate leadership position in our culture.
The largest gaps between positive and negative ratings belong to DeSantis (minus 20 points) and Trump (minus 19). The smallest belongs to Haley (minus 3).
But before you start imagining the Marine Band playing “Hail to the Chief” to President Haley, add together the pluses and minuses of all three of them.
Trump comes out at 89, DeSantis at 76 — pretty high numbers. Haley, with a positive rating of 23 percentage points and a negative rating of 26, comes out with a total of only 49. That tells us that only about half of the country even has an opinion about her. Watch that space.
A Swampscott High School Class of 1972 member, David M. Shribman is the Pulitzer Prize-winning former executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
