David Mastio
In Donald Trump’s speech, personalities loomed large. Whether it was George Washington’s second best presidency or Elon Musk’s brilliant work at the Department of Government Efficiency or Joe Biden’s disastrous egg statesmanship, Trump’s perspective was just a bit cracked. But on one subject, the whole dozen fell out of the cart and smashed on the floor.
Donald Trump promised his administration is going to balance the budget. “And in the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget,” Trump said. “We are going to balance it.”
Not since Bill Clinton’s “boob bait for bubbas” has there been a lie so contemptuous of its audience and so utterly disconnected from reality. Not since the meaning of “is” was up for debate has a one syllable word, in this case “near,” carried so much weight. Wait, not even then.
Donald Trump’s actual policy is to take the federal budget as far away from balance as any president with a tiny congressional majority possibly could. He said it right there in his speech for anyone who can do the maths. Let me count the ways.
1: “And the next phase of our plan to deliver the greatest economy in history is for this Congress to pass tax cuts for everybody,” he said. The cost of the tax cuts already in his budget passed by Congress, is $4,600,000,000,000.
2: “No tax on tips,” he said. Cost: $107,000,000,000.
3: “No tax on overtime,” he said. Cost: $866,000,000,000.
4: “No tax on Social Security benefits for our great seniors,” he said. Cost: $1,500,000,000,000.
5: “I also want to make interest payments on car loans tax deductible,” he said. Cost: $173,000,000,000.
6: “We want to cut taxes on domestic production and all manufacturing,” He said. Cost: $250,000,000,000.
7: “We will provide 100% expensing,” he said. Cost: $100,000,000,000.
That adds up to $7.596 trillion. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget figures Trump’s tax cuts, tariff increases, tax changes and other policy measures as having a 10-year cost of $5 trillion to $11 trillion.
Whatever the number, we already had a deficit last year of $1.8 trillion or in Washington budget speak a 10-year deficit of $18 trillion. (18,000,000,000,000.)
Add it all up and you’re talking about the need for something like $23 to $29 trillion in budget cuts to balance the budget over the next 10 years.
The entire budget of US AID over 10 years is $720 billion. The entire 10-year budget of all of the federal government except defense, Social Security, and Medicare is roughly $35 trillion.
In short, with all Trump’s planned tax cuts we’d have to cut all other government spending by 75%. That’s Medicaid, Food Stamps, housing subsidies for the poor. That’s Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement for those worried about the border. That’s the FBI and Justice Department and federal court for those worried about crime.
I am sure that Washington’s wonkiest types could do this analysis with more nuance than I can the morning after Trump’s delusional speech, but they’ll come to the same conclusion. Trump’s plan only works in fantasy land.
Think Donald Trump’s going to balance the budget? The yolk’s on you.
