Editorial written by Chicago Tribune Editorial Board.
Americans are having fewer children, and the birth rate has dropped to historic lows — prompting declarations of a U.S. existential crisis, most notably and volubly from Elon Musk. But how worried should we actually be?
Here’s the legitimate concern. The United States’ total fertility rate — which estimates the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime — fell to 1.62 in 2023, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
When a population begins to shrink, it defies the fundamental models of how societies grow and prosper. Growth signals strength and vitality; decline signals weakness and decay. Once growth stops, it can set off a downward spiral that’s hard — or even impossible — to reverse.
The U.S. fertility rate has steadily dropped over the past 15 years, hitting record lows in recent years. There’s a lot that factors into this phenomenon. Baby Boomers, a historically large generation, are dying off. COVID-19 brought a notable dip in lawful immigration rates, which have typically bolstered our population. Without new Americans, the Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. population would begin to shrink by 2033, due to persistently low fertility rates.
So declining fertility rates certainly have broader implications for the U.S. Which brings up the question: Why are people having fewer babies?
In our opinion, one of the biggest — and most misunderstood — factors in this debate, is that it’s become prohibitively expensive to start a family. So as U.S. policymakers try to gin up another baby boom, they should ask themselves: Are the conditions right for women to want to have more kids?
The decision to have them is as much an act of love and good fortune as it is a calculation.
Consider: Raising a child to age 17 costs an estimated $310,605 for a middle-class family, according to the Brookings Institution. Housing is the largest expense, followed by child care, transportation and food. That total doesn’t even include college tuition, which, as we’ve written repeatedly, has grown prohibitively expensive. No wonder one recent survey showed that about a third of Americans aren’t planning to start a family because it’s too expensive.
That’s why we’re skeptical of increasingly aggressive campaigns from high-profile political figures urging Americans to have more kids — and to do so quickly.
Musk, the brilliant, controversial billionaire with 14 children by four women (assuming that’s all), is among the most vocal pronatalists. At a rally last October, he urged Americans to “just have kids,” insisting “it’ll work out.” But while Musk warns of a declining America, he ignores the reality that it’s not that simple for regular people.
Some of the policy ideas floating around to spur another baby boom oversimplify the problem and ignore the realities facing modern families. It’s not just the upfront cost of pregnancy and childbirth that deters people from starting a family — it’s more often the belief that choosing this option is not financially viable in the long run.
The Trump administration has proposed a $5,000 “baby bonus” for first-time mothers. (Remember, the estimated cost of raising a child to age 17 is over $300,000.) A $5,000 check for each new mom would cost the government plenty, but wouldn’t go incredibly far, potentially covering just several months worth of day care. Paid family leave is another idea floating around, and state lawmakers have introduced their own proposal to create a paid family leave program funded by a jobs tax. President Donald Trump also issued an executive order in February to explore ways to reduce the out-of-pocket costs of IVF.
The good news is that politicians are thinking about ways to make pregnancy and the postpartum period more doable. But these proposals often feel like well-meaning but shallow gestures — such as buying a child a shiny new toy while ignoring their need for food and shelter.
The real deterrents to starting a family are deeply embedded in how young Americans live, work and plan for the future.
