Jockey Calvin Borel has said he will win Saturday’s Belmont aboard Mine That Bird, and he may well be correct, but there is simply no value in a horse who won the Kentucky Derby and was second in the Preakness.Too many times, handicappers get away from a horse they liked in his last race if he throws in a clunker, and then end up kicking themselves when the horse rebounds the next time out.Because of that, we will stick with Dunkirk, who flopped in the Kentucky Derby.A closer look at Dunkirk’s Derby run shows he stumbled at the start and was steadied repeatedly. That is an awful lot to overcome for the most seasoned thoroughbred, so we are willing to give him another shot as he makes just his fifth career start.Mine That Bird earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure while winning the Derby and a 106 when finishing behind the filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.Dunkirk owns the field’s best lifetime Beyer at 108, which he earned when he finished second behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. Prior to Quality Road being knocked off the Triple Crown trail, many believed he was the most talented 3-year-old.Dunkirk’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, gives the riding nod to jockey J.R. Velazquez Saturday and the trainer/jock combination is clicking at 20 percent at Belmont this year.Dunkirk, who is listed at 4-1 in the morning line, may offer even better value Saturday as people pour in money on Mine That Bird and Charitable Man, who has become the hot horse of the week after his win in the Peter Pan at Belmont May 9.A case can certainly be made for Charitable Man (3-1), who has the solid backing of Lynn Mayor Edward J. Clancy Jr., as the son of Lemon Drop Kid (1999 Belmont winner) is 2-2 over the Belmont strip and 3-3 on dirt surfaces.Charitable Man was 2-2 as a 2-year-old last year before undergoing surgery. He returned in the Blue Grass at Keeneland (finishing 7th) before rebounding in the Peter Pan.Mine That Bird is the most talented of the 3-year-olds who are still standing in the Triple Crown, but his dead-closer style does not suit the Belmont well.Despite conventional thinking that the longest race (11/2 miles) should be won by a closer, it is, however, horses who are close to the pace and keep running who normally win the Test of The Champion.It may not be a huge payout Saturday, but we’ll go with a win ticket on Dunkirk and an exacta box of Dunkirk and Charitable Man.
